A deep-learning based citation count prediction model with paper metadata semantic features

Predicting the impact of academic papers can help scholars quickly identify the high-quality papers in the field. How to develop efficient predictive model for evaluating potential papers has attracted increasing attention in academia. Many studies have shown that early citations contribute to improving the performance of predicting the long-term impact of a paper. Besides early citations, some bibliometric features and altmetric features have also been explored for predicting the impact of academic papers. Furthermore, paper metadata text such as title, abstract and keyword contains valuable information which has effect on its citation count. However, present studies ignore the semantic information contained in the metadata text. In this paper, we propose a novel citation prediction model based on paper metadata text to predict the long-term citation count, and the core of our model is to obtain the semantic information from the metadata text. We use deep learning techniques to encode the metadata text, and then further extract high-level semantic features for learning the citation prediction task. We also integrate early citations for improving the prediction performance of the model. We show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art models in predicting the long-term citation count of the papers, and metadata semantic features are effective for improving the accuracy of the citation prediction models.