Bayesian Estimation of the Number of Individuals in a Sample with a Known Weight

We introduce a Bayesian probability model for making inferences about the unknown number of individuals in a sample, based on known sample weight and on information provided by subsamples with known weights and corresponding counts. Inherent in the Bayesian approach, the model allows for an incorporation of prior information that is often available about the sample size and other uncertain parameter values. As a result, the model provides an estimate of the number of individuals in the sample in the form of a posterior probability distribution that includes both the prior information and the interpretation of the observed data. Such a result cannot be obtained using the frequentist approach. The model presented here can be applied to a wide range of similar problems. Here our main focus is stock assessment, where the task is the conversion of the catch weight into the number of individuals in the catch. The model is easy to use due to availability of general purpose MCMC simulation software, and it can be used either in a standalone fashion or embedded into more complex probability models.