Toward Dynamic Risk Prediction of Outcomes After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft: Improving Risk Prediction With Intraoperative Events Using Gradient Boosting

Background: Intraoperative data may improve models predicting postoperative events. We evaluated the effect of incorporating intraoperative variables to the existing preoperative model on the predictive performance of the model for coronary artery bypass graft. Methods: We analyzed 378 572 isolated coronary artery bypass graft cases performed across 1083 centers, using the national Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database between 2014 and 2016. Outcomes were operative mortality, 5 postoperative complications, and composite representation of all events. We fitted models by logistic regression or extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). For each modeling approach, we used preoperative only, intraoperative only, or pre+intraoperative variables. We developed 84 models with unique combinations of the 3 variable sets, 2 variable selection methods, 2 modeling approaches, and 7 outcomes. Each model was tested in 20 iterations of 70:30 stratified random splitting into development/testing samples. Model performances were evaluated on the testing dataset using the C statistic, area under the precision-recall curve, and calibration metrics, including the Brier score. Results: The mean patient age was 65.3 years, and 24.7% were women. Operative mortality, excluding intraoperative death, occurred in 1.9%. In all outcomes, models that considered pre+intraoperative variables demonstrated significantly improved Brier score and area under the precision-recall curve compared with models considering pre or intraoperative variables alone. XGBoost without external variable selection had the best C statistics, Brier score, and area under the precision-recall curve values in 4 of the 7 outcomes (mortality, renal failure, prolonged ventilation, and composite) compared with logistic regression models with or without variable selection. Based on the calibration plots, risk restratification for mortality showed that the logistic regression model underestimated the risk in 11 114 patients (9.8%) and overestimated in 12 005 patients (10.6%). In contrast, the XGBoost model underestimated the risk in 7218 patients (6.4%) and overestimated in 0 patients (0%). Conclusions: In isolated coronary artery bypass graft, adding intraoperative variables to preoperative variables resulted in improved predictions of all 7 outcomes. Risk models based on XGBoost may provide a better prediction of adverse events to guide clinical care.