Arrival Predictability Visualization

In analyzing arrival predictability in the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential to understand the complex relationships between the various processes involved. Taxi-out times, departure time, and delay propagation each have a compound effect on the actual arrival time of a flight. Arrival predictability is important to Traffic Flow Management (TFM) specialists whose responsibility it is to ensure maximum utilization of airport arrival capacity, which involves the accurate anticipation of future arrival demand. This paper presents a new visualization technique with which TFM specialists and Air Traffic Control Systems Command Center (ATCSCC) analysts will achieve a more detailed depiction of the variables that affect arrival predictability. This visualization technique supports three conclusions of our analysis. Foremost, arrival compliance depends heavily on the chosen definition for compliance. Secondly, when the control time of arrival (CTA) at departure is compared to the actual arrival time...