Integration of Multiple Temporal Qualitative Probabilistic Networks in Time Series Environments

The integration of uncertain information from different time sources is a crucial issue in various applications. In this paper, we propose an integration method of multiple Temporal Qualitative Probabilistic Networks (TQPNs) in time series environments. First, we present the method for learning TQPN from time series data. The TQPN's structure is constructed using Dynamic Bayesian Networks learning based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Furthermore, the corresponding qualitative influences are obtained by the conditional probabilities. Secondly, based on rough set theory, we integrate multiple TQPNs into a single QPN that preserves as much information as possible. Specifically, we take the rough-set-based dependency degree as the strength of qualitative influence, and then make the rules to solve the ambiguities reduction and cycles deletion problems which arise from the integration of different TQPNs. Finally, we verify the feasibility of the integration method by the simulation experiments.