Iron fertilisation by Asian dust influences North Pacific sardine regime shifts

Forcing factors and mechanisms underlying multidecadal variability in the production of the world’s major fish stocks are one of the great mysteries of the oceans. The Japanese and California sardine are species that exhibit the regime shifts. It is shown in the present work that during two periods of frequent Asian dust events over the last 100 years, sardines on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean only flourished under a dust-active regime. The earlier such regime that peaked in the 1930s was strong, and it brought synchronous changes in the two species that were linked to the frequency of Asian dust events. However, there is an apparent mismatch in the rise and fall of abundance between the two species in the current dust-active regime. The massive increase in Japanese sardine stock in the 1970s was related to high levels of ocean precipitation and strong winter mixing, whereas the stock collapse since 1988 has been attributed to diminished winter mixing. High levels of ocean precipitation in the western North Pacific effectively cause wet deposition of Asian dust and enhance Japanese sardine stock, whereas it reduces dust flux that can be transported to the eastern North Pacific, delaying the increase of California sardine stock. Analysis further indicates that productivity of Japanese sardine stock is jointly controlled by wet deposition of Asian dust and winter mixing, which supplies macronutrients from depth. California sardine productivity is inversely related to precipitation in the western North Pacific and is positively affected by precipitation off western North America. This indicates that Asian dust influx dominates productivity of the species because of iron-limited ocean productivity in the California sardine ranges. The analysis suggests that dust regime shifts influence shifts in sardine productivity regimes and that iron input from Asian dust during trans-Pacific transport is directly responsible. It appears that in addition to enhancing phytoplankton growth and carbon sinks, atmospheric iron deposition can regulate the production of living ocean resources, which is an extension of Martin’s iron hypothesis.