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What can explain the price, volatility and trading volume of Bitcoin?

Authors :
Jon Erik de Vries
Peter Molnár
Halvor Aarhus Aalborg
Source :
Finance Research Letters. 29:255-265
Publication Year :
2019
Publisher :
Elsevier BV, 2019.

Abstract

We study which variables can explain and predict the return, volatility and trading volume of Bitcoin. The considered variables are return, volatility, trading volume, transaction volume, change in the number of unique Bitcoin addresses, the VIX index and Google searches for “Bitcoin”. We use realized volatility calculated from high-frequency data and find that the heterogeneous autoregressive model is suitable for Bitcoin volatility. Trading volume further improves this volatility model. The trading volume of Bitcoin can be predicted from Google searches for “Bitcoin”. However, none of the considered variables can predict Bitcoin returns.

Details

ISSN :
15446123
Volume :
29
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Finance Research Letters
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........b27b7cab9f77bdf45d7d8ed6bfcda9b4
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.08.010