Use of cytokeratin 18 and EAU score to predict tumor recurrence in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer following single postoperative immediate intravesical chemotherapy instillation

269 Background: We examined the prognostic factors for recurrence after TURBT using molecular markers as well as the scoring system of the EAU. Methods: Eighty-eight patients with primary or recurrent bladder tumors who underwent TURBT followed by the single postoperative immediate instillation of pirarubicin and no further instillations were enrolled between 2003 and 2006; the median follow-up period was 46 months. The time to first recurrence was the primary end point of this study. Patients were divided into EAU recurrence risk groups as follows: low-risk group (total score, 0), intermediate-risk group (total score, 1-9) and high-risk group (total score, 9-17). The intermediate-risk group patients were subdivided into a total score of 1-4 and a total score of 5-9. Immunostaining using Ki-67, pHH3, CK18 and Survivin were performed on the TURBT specimens. Results: According to the risk stratification, 5, 82, and 1 were assigned to the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk recurrence groups, respectively. During the follow-up, recurrences were observed in 0% of the low-risk group, 45% (37 out of 82) in the intermediate-risk group and 100% in the high-risk group. We evaluated various predictors of a recurrence-free outcome among the 82 intermediate-risk patients. In univariate analyses, EAU score (1-4, 32.1% vs 5-9, 62.1%; p = 0.0011), high CK18 expression (negative, 31.4% vs positive 88.8%; p < 0.0001), high Ki-67 index (< 5%, 35.4% vs > 5%, 52.5%; p = 0.017) and high Survivin nuclear staining (< 5%, 35.9% vs > 5%, 62.5%; p = 0.004) were associated with recurrence. In a multivariate analysis, EAU score (HR 2.95, p = 0.003) and a high CK18 immunostaining (HR 6.70, p < 0.0001) were independent predictors of disease recurrence. Conclusions: A single immediate chemotherapy instillation is, by itself, insufficient for the treatment of patients in the intermediate- or high-risk recurrence groups defined by the EAU guidelines. Strong immunohistochemical expression of CK18 and the EAU scoring system appeared to be independent predictors of clinical outcome among patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder. No significant financial relationships to disclose.