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Synthesis of chaos and sustainability in a nonstationary linear dynamic model of the American black bear (Ursus americanus Pallas) in the Adirondack Mountains of New York
- Source :
- Ecological Modelling. 100:11-42
- Publication Year :
- 1997
- Publisher :
- Elsevier BV, 1997.
-
Abstract
- Black bears on the 6000-ha Huntington Wildlife Forest, in the central Adirondack region of upper New York State, were modeled using the stella II simulation software. The purposes were to (1) express black-bear biology as a population system inseparably derived from its ecosystem; (2) demonstrate how chaos, with origins in nonlinearity, and sustainability, related to linearity, can be incorporated into dynamical models, minimizing the use of mathematics that may not be well-chosen due to an inadequate rationale; and (3) demonstrate how qualitative biology, natural history, and ecology can be realistically built into a model despite many unknowns and initially limited data. A rationale is presented for synthesizing chaos and sustainability in ecological models. From this and the good behavioral properties observed in simulated baseline and sensitivity dynamics, it is concluded that a useful approach in ecological modelling may be to put nonlinear attributes into the parameter space and linear ones into the state space to conform the two opposed properties of well-behavedness and surprise. The role of linearity in modelling, and in formulating humanity's future ecological paradigm of existence, should not be overlooked.
- Subjects :
- education.field_of_study
biology
Ecology
Ecological Modeling
Ecology (disciplines)
Population
biology.organism_classification
biology.animal
Sustainability
State space
STELLA (programming language)
Ursus
American black bear
education
Baseline (configuration management)
Mathematical economics
Mathematics
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 03043800
- Volume :
- 100
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Ecological Modelling
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........af8ef9ca3db59ec25e792609f8f9387b