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The importance of small fires for wildfire hazard in urbanised landscapes of the northeastern US

Authors :
Amanda Carlson
Megan Sebasky
Volker C. Radeloff
Matthew P. Peters
Source :
International Journal of Wildland Fire. 30:307-321
Publication Year :
2021
Publisher :
CSIRO Publishing, 2021.

Abstract

Frequent, small wildfires can pose dangers to homes in the wildland–urban interface, but are not often included in wildfire hazard models. We assessed patterns of small wildfire occurrence probability in the Northeast region of the United States, focusing on (1) spatial and seasonal variations; (2) differences between small and large fires (size threshold of 4 ha); and (3) how predicted probabilities are influenced by inconsistent wildfire definitions in urbanised landscapes. We analysed fire incident report data from 2005 to 2017 to parameterise maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models based on land cover, topography, climatic water deficit, soil moisture and road density. Overall, wildfire occurrence was highest in areas with lower agricultural cover and with more low-density urban development (explaining 53.5 and 28.6% of variance, respectively, in our region-wide model), while larger fires were concentrated in areas with intermediate levels of development, higher climatic water deficit and more rugged topography. These patterns were largely consistent when we assessed models for individual states, but differences in wildfire reporting patterns led to differences in the effect of urban development on fire probability. Our results provide novel understanding of small wildfire patterns in the Northeast and demonstrate the need to more reliably quantify these hazards.

Details

ISSN :
14485516 and 10498001
Volume :
30
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
International Journal of Wildland Fire
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........ac058f28a8f16dda061ed67e988df0f7
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1071/wf20186