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Temperature-load sensitivity study for adjusting MISO day-ahead load forecast

Authors :
Jiahong Yan
Ning Lu
Hui Zheng
Source :
2016 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM).
Publication Year :
2016
Publisher :
IEEE, 2016.

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a temperature-load sensitivity study carried out at the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) for adjusting MISO day-ahead load forecast. As the area operated by MISO is growing rapidly, operators at MISO have to examine the day-ahead load forecast results generated by commercial software packages on a daily basis and manually correct anticipated discrepancies to enhance the forecast accuracy. To quantify the adjustment of the forecasted load, a series of temperature-load sensitivity studies are conducted using the actual MISO load data from past 5 years. A piecewise general linear model (GLM) is developed to capture the impact of time-dependent factors and temperature variations on the magnitude of MISO temperature-load sensitivity. A numerical study case compares the results before and after the tuning with the presented temperature-load sensitivity analysis.

Details

Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
2016 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM)
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........a5ffbc3edcf2ae515fed4ac4e11e5de3