Optimal Strategy of the Electricity Sale Distribution for Deterministic Generation in Long-Term and Real-Time Markets Based on Risk Factors

There are many various patterns for electricity market. Different countries adopt different patterns according to their own characteristics. However, no matter what pattern they adopt, there must be a certain structure similar to long-term market and real-time market where power sellers usually make electricity transaction. From the view of electricity power sellers, it is the key for hydropower enterprise (Power seller) to find an optimal sale strategy which can maximize the amount of electricity sale while minimizing the probability of risk. In this paper, on the base of analysis on the deterministic gross generation, a mathematic model is established to gain the maximal income of electricity sale in the case of considering risk factors, and to investigate the relationship between risk factors and electricity sale distribution in the two markets, long-term market and real-time market. Then, subsequently, the optimal strategy of electricity sale distribution of gross generation will be obtained in every market in order to maximize the total expected benefit. The feasibility and validness of the Model are verified by its application to a case as well.