Estimating live-bed local scour around bridge piers in cohesionless sediments: applicability and bias of selected models

To design the foundation system of waterway bridges, Load and Resistance Factor Design guidelines suggest use of deterministic scour depth prediction models. Understanding the inherent bias of deterministic scour depth prediction models will advance the development of reliability index-based foundation design regime. Four bridge scour depth prediction models were assessed in terms of two statistical parameters, termed herein mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and conservatism, percentage of cases the predicted scour depth exceeded the measured scour depth. Live-bed laboratory and field scour depth databases were used in analyses to quantify model scatter by comparatively assessing the computed scour depth versus measured data. For live-bed laboratory data, values of MAPE ranged from 23.5% to 59.8%, whereas conservatism ranged from 28.4% to 97.8%. For live-bed field data, conservatism varied from 93.3% to 95.1%, while MAPE ranged from 205.6% to 319%. Statistical models were applied to ascertain the biasness of the four deterministic models. Accuracy and conservatism of a given model were consequently adjusted through proposed modification factors. The proposed approach allows for the selection of a suitable modification factor to satisfy a target probability of deceedance or a target conservatism.