Ecological restoration projects did not increase the value of all ecosystem services in Northeast China

Ecosystem service value (ESV) is greatly affected by changes in land use/land cover (LULC), and land use decisions are critical drivers of LULC change. ESV assessment has become an important basis for evaluating the effectiveness of land use decisions. The implementation location and scope of different land use decisions have not received sufficient research attention, and there is therefore little information on the actual effects of such decisions. Northeast China has been the subject of multiple land use decisions in the past, and a lack of information on their effectiveness has created challenges to sustainable ecosystem management. In this study, we used the latest benefit transfer method specifically developed for China to evaluate the changes in ESV and quantified the location and scope of different land use decisions to evaluate their benefits. The results showed that the total ESV increased from about $353.54 billion in 2000 to $354.86 billion in 2010 because of the expansion of river and lake, broad-leaved forest, and paddy field. However, the total ESV decreased to $353.39 billion in 2015 due mainly to decreases in wetlands, rivers and lakes, and dry farmland. The impact of wetland loss on ESV outweighed that of forestland increase. The Grain for Green Program (GFGP) and the Natural Forests Conservation Program (NFCP) increased ESV in the 2000–2010 period but decreased it in the 2010–2015 period. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP) led to a continuous increase in ESV, but the Natural Wetland Conservation Program (NWCP) did not lead to an increase in ESV from 2000 to 2015. The effectiveness of the GFGP, NFCP, and NWCP should be enhanced, and priority conservation areas need to be established. This study can provide a reference for balancing the influence of multiple land use decisions in order to promote sustainable development.