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New Insights on Subseasonal Arctic–Midlatitude Causal Connections from a Regularized Regression Model
- Source :
- Journal of Climate. 33:213-228
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- American Meteorological Society, 2019.
-
Abstract
- Arctic–midlatitude teleconnections are complex and multifaceted. By design, targeted modeling studies typically focus only on one direction of influence—usually, the midlatitude atmospheric response to a changing Arctic. The two-way, coupled feedbacks between the Arctic and the midlatitude circulation on submonthly time scales are explored using a regularized regression model formulated around Granger causality. The regularized regression model indicates that there are regions in which Arctic temperature drives a midlatitude circulation response, and regions in which the midlatitude circulation drives a response in the Arctic; however, these regions rarely overlap. In many regions, on submonthly time scales, the midlatitude circulation drives Arctic temperature variability, highlighting the important role the midlatitude circulation can play in impacting the Arctic. In particular, the regularized regression model results support recent work that indicates that the observed high pressure anomalies over Eurasia drive a significant response in the Arctic on submonthly time scales, rather than being driven by the Arctic.
- Subjects :
- Atmospheric Science
Focus (computing)
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Arctic
Atmospheric circulation
Climatology
Middle latitudes
Environmental science
Regression analysis
010502 geochemistry & geophysics
01 natural sciences
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Teleconnection
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15200442 and 08948755
- Volume :
- 33
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Climate
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........9ec14d13e26d86469f1d9402724fcb86