Optimization of cultivated land pattern for achieving cultivated land system security: A case study in Heilongjiang Province, China

The change of cultivated land pattern (CLP) has a significant impact on cultivated land system security (CLSS), and is the foundation of ensuring adequate provision of cultivated land, and the premise of achieving sustainable development of the society. While there is a lack of research on the CLP optimization with the goal of achieving CLSS, particularly lacking research that taking the main grain production areas at the provincial scale as a study area. Hence, taking Heilongjiang Province in China as the study area, this paper uses the regional interpolation of ArcGIS spatial analysis and Auto-Logistics method to diagnose the common driving factors of CLSS and CLP change, and further sets up different development scenarios with the goal of CLSS to carry out the study of CLP optimization through the introduction of Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The results showed that: Firstly, the dynamic changes of paddy field, dryland and cultivated land were the most intense in the eastern Sanjiang Plain, the second in the western Songnen Plain, the weakest in the north-south axis, and the changes of paddy field and dryland were more intense in the later period (2010–2015) than in the earlier period (1995–2010); Secondly, regional interpolation in ArcGIS and Auto-Logistics method can effectively and reasonably spatialize, and diagnose the key factors (terrain and geomorphology including elevation and slope, socio-economic (distance to residential area, agricultural three wastes index) and farmland productivity potential) which affect the change of CLSS and CLP; Thirdly, the Kappa test coefficient of CLP optimization based on FLUS model is 0.898, with good simulation accuracy, meaning the combination of Auto-logistic and FLUS can achieve high-precision simulation of CLP. The simulation results that under the integrated control scenarios of food security, ecological protection and economic development, the regional food security, ecological protection and economic development are considered comprehensively, and the contradictions among the three are coordinated, which is more reasonable and conducive to the improvement of CLSS. Fourthly, the policies on controlling the growth rate of paddy fields, rationally reducing rural residential areas and decreasing agricultural three wastes should be strengthened to implement the optimal CLP and improve CLSS. The results bestow convincing insights on decision-making for the implementation of the optimal distribution of cultivated land resources and the compilation of the national land space plan, and also provide an important reference for the study area to improve CLSS by optimizing CLP.