A System Dynamics Approach for Local Settlement Morphology Planning Based on Household Consumption Carbon Footprint

Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission (GHG emission) from household consumption became increasingly important under the background of global urbanization. Taking Xiamen Island, a rapidly urbanizing area, as the case study area, this article categorized the settlement morphology of Xiamen Island into three types according to the key factors influencing the GHG emission of urban household consumption. The feedback loops intra- and inter-subsystems (settlement morphology, population, and carbon footprint) were induced by clarifying the causal relationship and feedback loops among variables. Then, the three subsystems were coupled based on feedback loops into the system dynamic model of carbon footprint of residential area in Xiamen Island and the validity of the model was verified. At last, the dynamic mechanism between the transition of settlement morphology and household consumption was characterized through the system dynamic simulation. The result proved that the model can dynamically characterized the effect of social and economic factors upon the household consumption carbon footprint, and is beneficial to the urban land planning of Xiamen Island and design and construction of residential settlement morphology.