Abstract P261: Machine Learning-Enabled Prediction of Long-Term Stroke Recurrence Using Data From Electronic Health Records

Objective: The long-term risk of recurrent ischemic stroke, estimated to be between 17%-30%, cannot be reliably assessed. Our goal was to study whether machine-learning can be trained to predict stroke recurrence and identify key clinical variables and assess whether performance metrics can be optimized. Methods: We used patient-level data from electronic health records, 6 algorithms (Logistic Regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree), 4 feature selection strategies, 5 prediction windows, and 2 sampling strategies to develop 288 models for up to 5-year stroke recurrence prediction. We further identified important clinical features and different optimization strategies. Results: We included 2,091 ischemic stroke patients for this study. Model AUROC was stable for prediction windows of 1,2,3,4 and 5 years, with the highest score for the 1-year (0.79) and the lowest score for the 5-year prediction window (0.69). A total of 21(7%) models reached an AUROC above 0.73 while 110(38%) models reached an AUROC greater than 0.7. Among the 53 features analyzed, age, body mass index, and laboratory-based features (such as high-density lipoprotein, hemoglobin A1C, and creatinine) had the highest overall importance scores. The balance between specificity and sensitivity improved through sampling strategies. Conclusion: All the selected six modeling algorithms could be trained to predict the long-term stroke recurrence and laboratory-based variables were highly associated with stroke recurrence. The latter could be targeted for personalized interventions. Model performance metrics could be optimized, and models can be implemented in the same healthcare system as intelligent decision support to improve outcomes.