Forcing, Cloud Feedbacks, Cloud Masking, and Internal Variability in the Cloud Radiative Effect Satellite Record

Satellite observations show a near-zero trend in the top-of-atmosphere global-mean net cloud radiative effect (CRE), suggesting that clouds did not further cool nor heat the planet over the last two decades. The causes of this observed trend are unknown and can range from effective radiative forcing (ERF) to cloud feedbacks, cloud masking, and internal variability. We find that the near-zero NetCRE trend is a result of a significant negative trend in the longwave (LW) CRE and a significant positive trend in the shortwave (SW) CRE, cooling and heating the climate system, respectively. We find that it is exceptionally unlikely (