Financial Crime and Potential Investment, International Integration Futures Forecasting: Bulgaria as What Kind of Special Case?

Intergovernmental bodies, governments, agencies, commercial and philanthropic institutions, when deciding whether or not to invest in low income nations where there is developmental uncertainty, do not now include formal appraisals of investment risk as including economic crime and its milieu correlates. Informal evaluations seem common, but appear to be hazarded by psychosocial and methodological processes and problems of which conventional decision makers are probably not aware. The authors consider these cognitive, group information processing and data adequacy hazards, and seek to examine investment risk as it relates to published reports bearing on economic crime and associated factors. The inadequacy of current data and assumptions is emphasised. Bulgaria is the illustrative case of poor data misinterpreted, eg the role of the underground economy, of careless ‘master trait’ summary reporting, and thus of exaggerated uncertainty for investment. Because the undertakings of the newly elected Bulgarian Government affirm the principles of loan recipient soundness long demanded by the IMF, now the criterion for World Bank loans, there is reason to believe Bulgaria will increasingly be viewed as a candidate for investment and Western European integration. Nevertheless economic crime and its associated features pose a measurement and forecast weighting challenge as ‘intangibles’. It is the better definition and more rigorous measurement of these, and avoidance of distorting information‐transmitting events which can exaggerate error, which remains to be done. Hard criminological evidence supporting confidence exists, for examination of earlier crime rates shows a society with low crime rates, such that current transitional fraud and violence may be but anomalies. Further, by assigning arbitrary positive values to cultural history and current governmental intentions, it may be concluded, that given evidence of modernisation of regulations and massive police reform, and a necessary speed in instituting change, development growth is likely. The authors are themselves, like most forecasting institutions, cautiously optimistic about the investment potential of Bulgaria. They nevertheless counsel that decision makers ignore at their peril the dangers in any low income country of crime and its correlated milieu.