Topic modeling and technology forecasting for assessing the commercial viability of healthcare innovations

Developing technologies for a transfer from science to market is a key element of research-intensive organizations such as innovation management centers that work closely with inventors to commercialize their technological innovations. To advance the commercial viability of technological innovations, this paper proposes a framework that integrates topic modeling, survival analysis, and judgment of subject matter experts to forecast promising technologies using patents as data resources. Regarding the commercial viability of identified technologies, our empirical analysis focuses on patents and licensing data from a prominent innovation management center over a 20-year period. We are able to identify technologies that are statistically significant for predicting the likelihood and the time until a patent is commercialized, and suggest a way to assess their scope of technological impact. Our results contribute to the understanding of promising healthcare technologies and help R&D managers to develop the knowledge they need to advocate technologies in support of commercial returns.