Urbanization, Secularization, and Birth Spacing: A Case Study of an Historical Fertility Transition

This article presents an analysis of the effect that urban secularization of religious pronatalism had upon established birth spacing behavior over the course of the fertility transition in the population of 19th century Utah. A model of variance in birth intervals attributable to age at marriage age of childbearing termination and completed family size over the duration of childbearing thus defined is presented. The simple analytical model achieves a reasonable fit for birth interval data. In addition the model demonstrates the relative dependence of birth intervals upon the fertility achieved over the duration of childbearing rather than upon deliberate control over the beginning or ending of the childbearing interval. Variations in age at marriage become more important in explaining birth intervals than do variation in age at last birth. The model is elaborated by incorporating 5 specific hypotheses concerning the effects of urbanism secularization and their interaction upon interbirth intervals. 2 principal conclusions were derived. 1) Birth interval differentials among subcohorts defined by religiosity and urbanism are generally consistent with fertility effects of traditional urbanism and secularization perspectives. 2) There is however no consistent evidence that this frontier population was as heterogeneous in the secularization of traditional pronatalism as is often the case in either European or 3rd world settings. Although a pattern of urban secularization is found uniformity of social and behavioral changes suggestsa that relatively homogeneous demographic behavior was produced on the frontier by the largely external locus of secularizing influences in the mainstream eastern American community.