Development of a decision procedure for forecasting maximum wind gusts associated with thunderstorms

Weather warnings are of great importance for the protection of life and property. The Storm Warning Observatory at Lake Balaton was founded with the aim of providing holidaymakers with warnings 1-2 hours ahead of expected wind gusts exceeding 12 or 17 ms−1. As a result of successive investigations an objective decision procedure has been developed which combines methods based on conventional data with the use of radar data. This procedure can be executed interactively on a computer. The permanence of wind hazards was investigated during frontal and convective weather situations using radar data and synoptic observations. The resulting distribution functions of empirical probability for the permanence of wind hazards associated with cumulonimbus can be used for the further optimisation of the decision method.