Understanding the Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change on Marsh Birds in the Gulf of Mexico Region

Global climate change is expected to significantly affect coastal ecosystems worldwide. For tidal marsh birds of the Gulf of Mexico, the extent of these impacts on future population dynamics is unknown. Here, we present information on our current understanding of marsh bird responses to climate change, identify gaps in that understanding, and propose ways of improving our ability to predict impacts on avian populations. Our understanding of how Gulf Coast avian populations will respond to environmental drivers such as sea-level rise, precipitation patterns, and hurricanes is limited, and detailed local and regional studies linking avian biology to wetland processes are needed. Impacts of wetland change on marsh bird species will be optimally assessed and forecasted within an adaptive framework, making use of process-driven studies that include models designed to elucidate patterns in avian biology and wetland dynamics. Further, because management and conservation efforts are implemented at local or site-specific scales, we recommend that process-driven studies incorporate hierarchical structures, nesting local efforts within a regional context. Implementing this research program will prove fundamental in furthering our understanding of avian population dynamics within the changing Gulf of Mexico environment.