Role of lunar phases, rainfall, and wind in predicting Hilsa shad ( Tenualosa ilisha ) catch in the northern Bay of Bengal

Hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha) is an important commercial fish in India. This study investigates relationships among Hilsa catch per unit effort (CPUE) and the corresponding lunar phase, rainfall variability, wind vector, and month in the northern Bay of Bengal. Hilsa catch during the monsoon season of three consecutive years (2013–2015) was analyzed by using a Generalized Least Square model with lunar phase and monsoon months (June–September) as categorical variables and wind direction as circular variable. Significantly higher Hilsa catch was observed during the waning crescent and waxing gibbous lunar phases and during easterly winds. There was no significant effect of wind velocity. Daily rainfall was significantly correlated with Hilsa migration toward the estuary. Among the four monsoon months, September exhibited the most positive significant correlation with the Hilsa CPUE. Model predicted CPUE underestimated the actual CPUE in 2016 by 20%