Development and External Validation of a Prognostic Multivariable Model on Admission for Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19

Background: COVID-19 pandemic has developed rapidly and the ability to stratify the most vulnerable patients is vital. However, routinely used severity scoring systems are often low on diagnosis, even in non-survivors. Therefore, clinical prediction models for mortality are urgently required. Methods: We developed and internally validated a multivariable logistic regression model to predict inpatient mortality in COVID-19 positive patients using data collected retrospectively from Tongji Hospital, Wuhan (299 patients). External validation was conducted using a retrospective cohort from Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan (145 patients). Nine variables commonly measured in these acute settings were considered for model development, including age, biomarkers and comorbidities. Backwards stepwise selection and bootstrap resampling were used for model development and internal validation. We assessed discrimination via the C statistic, and calibration using calibration-in-the-large, calibration slopes and plots. Findings: The final model included age, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and SpO2 as independent predictors of mortality. Discrimination of the model was excellent in both internal (c=0·89) and external (c=0·98) validation. Internal calibration was excellent (calibration slope=1). External validation showed some over-prediction of risk in low-risk individuals and under-prediction of risk in high-risk individuals prior to recalibration. Recalibration of the intercept and slope led to excellent performance of the model in independent data. Interpretation: COVID-19 is a new disease and behaves differently from common critical illnesses. This study provides a new prediction model to identify patients with lethal COVID-19. Its practical reliance on commonly available parameters should improve usage of limited healthcare resources and patient survival rate. Funding Statement: This work wassupported, in part, by the research grants 2020YFC0841300 and 2020YFC0843700 from Ministry of Science and Technology of China, and by NIHR(PDF-2018-11-ST2-006), BHF (PG/16/65/32313) and Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in UK. Declaration of Interests: All the authors declare no conflict of interest. Ethics Approval Statement: The protocol was approved by the local Institutional Ethics Committee (Approval Number: KY-2020-10.02).