Regional Scenarios of Biodiversity State in the Tropical Andes

Biodiversity assessment represents a baseline for developing conservation strategies, but the assessment of future impact of some policies also requires the development of scenarios. These assessments are particularly important and difficult in areas with high biodiversity such as the Tropical Andes. Therefore three countries were analyzed: Colombia, Ecuador and Peru using the framework of GLOBIO3 to assess the remaining biodiversity for 2000 and for two 2030 scenarios: market forces and policy reforms. The purpose was to identify the most vulnerable areas to biodiversity loss, the most important drivers and the implications of such losses for conservation. Detailed information for each country was used to build the drivers of biodiversity loss (land use/land cover, infrastructure, fragmentation and climate change). The authors discuss the use of this methodology for Andean countries, how the results can be useful for policy and decision makers, and provide suggestions to improve GLOBIO3 at national scales.