Mid-21st century projections in temperature extremes in the southern Colorado Rocky Mountains from regional climate models

This study analyzes mid-21st century projections of daily surface air minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, by season and elevation, over the southern range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. The projections are from four regional climate models (RCMs) that are part of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). All four RCMs project 2°C or higher increases in Tmin and Tmax for all seasons. However, there are much greater (>3°C) increases in Tmax during summer at higher elevations and in Tmin during winter at lower elevations. Tmax increases during summer are associated with drying conditions. The models simulate large reductions in latent heat fluxes and increases in sensible heat fluxes that are, in part, caused by decreases in precipitation and soil moisture. Tmin increases during winter are found to be associated with decreases in surface snow cover, and increases in soil moisture and atmospheric water vapor. The increased moistening of the soil and atmosphere facilitates a greater diurnal retention of the daytime solar energy in the land surface and amplifies the longwave heating of the land surface at night. We hypothesize that the presence of significant surface moisture fluxes can modify the effects of snow-albedo feedback and results in greater wintertime warming at night than during the day.