Software reliability modeling: an approach to early reliability prediction

Models for predicting software reliability in the early phases of development are of paramount importance since they provide early identification of cost overruns, software development process issues, optimal development strategies, etc. A few models geared towards early reliability prediction, applicable to well defined domains, have been developed during the 1990s. However, many questions related to early prediction are still open, and more research in this area is needed, particularly for developing a generic approach to early reliability prediction. This paper presents an approach to predicting software reliability based on a systematic identification of software process failure modes and their likelihoods. A direct consequence of the approach and its supporting data collection efforts is the identification of weak areas in the software development process. A Bayes framework for the quantification of software process failure mode probabilities can be useful since it allows use of historical data that are only partially relevant to the software at hand. The key characteristics of the approach should apply to other software-development life-cycles and phases. However, it is unclear how difficult the implementation of the approach would be, and how accurate the predictions would be. Further research will help answer these questions.