What patient and health facility attributes predict retention and virologic suppression in private for-profit health centers? A retrospective cohort analysis of data from a large private sector antiretroviral treatment program in Nigeria

Background In Nigeria, private for-profit health facilities present an opportunity to achieve the 95-95-95 HIV targets because of their reach and patronage. However, little is known about determinants of outcomes in these facilities. This study describes patient outcomes and their determinants in adults receiving HIV treatment in private facilities in 3 states in north-central Nigeria. Methods A retrospective longitudinal analysis of program data collected between 2013 and 2019 was done. Patient attributes and outcomes were compared across states. Incidence rates were determined for all outcomes. Cox proportional hazard models and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify associations with and predictors of study outcomes respectively. Results 42.7%, 22.2% and 35.1% of the 22,010 study subjects were in Benue, FCT and Nasarawa respectively. 31.8% had been on ART for less than a year at censoring. Incidence rates for all-cause exit, mortality and LTFU were 17.2, 2.1 and 11.2 per 100 person years respectively. Males had higher risks of death (HR = 1.47), and LTFU (HR = 1.08). Age at ART start showed a dose-response association with both mortality and LTFU. Care at model facilities (OR = 2.16), AZT-based regimens (OR = 2.00), and low baseline CD4 + count (OR = 2.40) were predictors of regimen switch. 75.6% of subjects were viral suppressed. Male gender (OR = 0.84); AZT- based regimen (OR = 0.72), age in the bottom quartile (OR = 0.71) were predictors of viral suppression. Conclusion Private sector patient outcomes are comparable to public sector programs. Appropriate technical support and engagement will facilitate combined efforts to achieve epidemic control of HIV in Nigeria.