Back to Search
Start Over
Forecasting container port volume: implications for dredging
- Source :
- Maritime Economics & Logistics. 19:296-314
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2017.
-
Abstract
- This paper aims to provide a practical method for forecasting potential container cargo volume that can be induced by a port development project on a container transport network by combining port choice and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The entrance channel improvement plan for Incheon New Port in South Korea is used as a case study. Based on the stated preference data collected from domestic shippers, a discrete choice analysis is performed to estimate the future market share of three major ports in South Korea: Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon. The estimated market share of Incheon New Port is used to forecast its future container volume derived by the ARIMA model and the potential port development scenarios.
- Subjects :
- 050210 logistics & transportation
Discrete choice
021103 operations research
Operations research
05 social sciences
Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
Transport network
0211 other engineering and technologies
Volume (computing)
Transportation
02 engineering and technology
Port (computer networking)
Dredging
0502 economics and business
Container (abstract data type)
Environmental science
Autoregressive integrated moving average
Market share
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 1479294X and 14792931
- Volume :
- 19
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Maritime Economics & Logistics
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........88606c25271a961f47639d163bd64ee0