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A model that contributes to assessing the risk of bark beetle mass outbreaks was established. By means of modelling air and cambial temperature for any location, an investigation area is evaluated with respect to its thermal conditions for the development of Ips typographus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Besides topo-climatic relations of a study area, modelling the potentials of bark beetle development implies profound information on eco-physiology. Thermal requirements for development, type of voltinism, and spring swarming behaviour of two examined beetle populations are discussed in terms of the definition of input parameters for modelling.