A Study on Perceived Probability of a Risky Event

This paper shows that an individual’s probability perception on risk occurrence incidence may be affected by situational factors and personal factors. To this end, it reviews previous research on the value function proposed by the prospect theory, and it reviews previous research on possible situational factors and individual factors that may affect the probability perception on the risk occurrence incidence. Then it empirically analyzes the effects of five variables as the situational factors (loss size from risky event, amount of information on risky event, temporal distance, social distance, and hypothetical distance) and the effects of three variables as the individual factors (perceived risk, involvement, and gender) with two experimental studies. According to the empirical studies, the probability perception on risk occurrence incidence varies depending on hypothetical distance (as a situational factor) and perceived risk, involvement, and gender (as individual factors).