Climate and recent range changes in butterflies

In order to make realistic predictions of species’ responses to future climate change we need to understand the relative importance of biotic versus abiotic factors in limiting species distributions. We focus on British butterflies, a group of species for which there are good current and historical distribution records. We review our previous studies investigating the relative importance of climate and habitat availability in limiting butterfly distributions. Our studies have used a combination of modelling and analysis of distribution records to investigate factors determining limits to species’ distributions in Europe, and to investigate recent range expansions of butterflies in Britain. Climates in Europe have warmed during the 20th century and many northern areas are improving for butterflies in terms of climate suitability. However, the widespread loss and fragmentation of natural habitats means that many climatically suitable areas are beyond the reach of dispersing adults and so species are unable to keep track of climate changes. In the future, many species may have the potential to occupy many northerly regions that are currently unsuitable. However, most of these newly available areas are remote from current distributions and many species are unlikely to be able to keep track of rapidly warming future climates.