Prognosis of Cryptogenic Stroke With Patent Foramen Ovale at Older Ages and Implications for Trials

Importance Patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure may prevent recurrent stroke after cryptogenic transient ischemic attack (TIA) or stroke (TIA/stroke) in patients aged 60 years or younger. Patent foramen ovale is associated with cryptogenic stroke in the older population, but risk of recurrence is unknown. Data on prognosis of patients receiving medical treatment at older ages (≥60 years) are essential to justify trials of PFO closure. Objective To examine the age-specific risk of recurrence in patients with cryptogenic TIA/stroke with PFO. Design, Setting, and Participants A prospective study was nested in the population-based Oxford Vascular Study between September 1, 2014, and March 31, 2019, with face-to-face follow-up for 5 years. A total of 416 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of cryptogenic TIA or nondisabling stroke, screened for PFO at a rapid-access TIA/stroke clinic, were included. A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies reporting on ischemic stroke recurrence after cryptogenic TIA/stroke in patients with PFO who were receiving medical therapy alone, or with PFO vs no-PFO was conducted. Sample size calculation for future trials on PFO closure was performed for patients aged 60 years or older. Exposures Patent foramen ovale and age as modifiers of risk of recurrent stroke after cryptogenic TIA/stroke in patients receiving only medical therapy. Main Outcomes and Measures Risk of ischemic stroke recurrence in patients with cryptogenic TIA/stroke and PFO receiving medical therapy only, and in patients with vs without PFO, stratified by age ( Results Among the 153 Oxford Vascular Study patients with PFO (mean [SD] age, 66.7 [13.7] years; 80 [52.3%] men), recurrent ischemic stroke risk (2.05 per 100 patient-years) was similar to the pooled estimate from a systematic review of 23 other studies (9 trials and 14 observational studies) (2.00 per 100 patient-years; 95% CI, 1.55-2.58). However, there was heterogeneity between studies (P Conclusions and Relevance The findings of this study suggest that age is a determinant of risk of ischemic stroke after cryptogenic TIA/stroke in patients with PFO, such that trials of PFO closure at older ages are justified; however, projected sample sizes are large.