Empirical Analysis and Predictions of Civil Aviation Passenger Traffic Based on ARIMA model

With the help of statistical software Eview6.0, qualitative analysis is carried out of China's civil aviation passenger traffic since reform and opening up. It is found that China’s civil aviation passenger traffic development experienced three stages: slow development stage from 1978 to1990, relatively rapid development stage from 1991 to 2003 and rapid development stage from 2004 until now. By carrying on the empirical analysis and forecasting through constructing the ARIMA model of passenger traffic, it shows that ARIMA (2, 2, 1) has a better fitting effect on the original data sequence and can undertake short-term forecast of passenger traffic, which provide data support for civil aviation passenger traffic regulation.