Normative Modeling of Brain Morphometry Across the Lifespan using CentileBrain: Algorithm Benchmarking and Model Optimization

Background: Normative modeling is a statistical approach to quantify the degree to which a particular individual-level measure deviates from the pattern observed in a normative reference population. When applied to human brain morphometric measures it has the potential to inform about the significance of normative deviations for health and disease. Normative models can be implemented using a variety of algorithms that have not been systematically appraised. Methods: To address this gap, eight algorithms were compared in terms of performance and computational efficiency using brain regional morphometric data from 37,407 healthy individuals (53% female; aged 3-90 years) collated from 87 international MRI datasets. Performance was assessed with the mean absolute error (MAE) and computational efficiency was inferred from central processing unit (CPU) time. The algorithms evaluated were Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR), Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS), Parametric Lambda, Mu, Sigma (LMS), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Warped Bayesian Linear Regression (WBLG), Hierarchical Bayesian Regression (HBR), and Multivariable Fractional Polynomial Regression (MFPR). Model optimization involved testing nine covariate combinations pertaining to acquisition features, parcellation software versions, and global neuroimaging measures (i.e., total intracranial volume, mean cortical thickness, and mean cortical surface area). Findings: Statistical comparisons across models at PFDR