Three-dimensional finite element modelling on strain localization around the Mabian earthquake swarm, Sichuan Province

SUMMARY The Mabian fault zone, distanced ∼200 km to the east of the Xianshuihe–Xiaojiang fault system, is located in the western vicinity of the relatively stable South China Block. Since 1917, about 54 M > 4.7 earthquakes, including the 1974 Ms = 7.1 Mabian event have occurred around this fault zone, suggesting that significant strain is localized within the Mabian fault zone. Here, we built a 3-D finite element model to investigate the main parameters that possibly control strain localization around the Mabian fault zone averaged over the active deformation timescale. In the model, the Xianshuihe–Xiaojiang fault system is specified as a discontinuous contact interface for its motion governed by a Coulomb-friction law, and the crustal rheology is simplified as a frictional upper crust underlain by a viscoelastic lower crust. In addition, global positioning system (GPS) data are used to mimic the horizontal tectonic loading, and the model base is supported by a hydrostatic pressure. Numerical results show that with the weak fault strength and the low viscosity contrast between the Tibetan plateau and the South China Block, strain rates from motion of the southeastern Tibetan plateau could be propagated across the Xianshuihe–Xiaojiang fault system more widely within the Mabian fault zone. Constrained by the estimates on slip rates of the faults and on rheological structures of the crust, our optimal model predicts the effective friction coefficient of the Xianshuihe–Xiaojiang fault of 0.05–0.1. Under this condition, relative motion across the Xianshuihe–Xiaojiang fault system is largely partitioned by the geometric bend near the central portion of the fault system, resulting in a relatively high strain rate of 2.1–3×10–8 yr–1 accumulating around the Mabian fault zone. Keeping the weak strength of the fault, numerical results also show that if the central portion of the Xianshuihe–Xiaojiang fault system follows the Daliangshan fault, strain accumulation around the Mabian fault zone could be significantly reduced. It thus can be concluded that the strain partitioning from the weak strength and the special geometry of the Xianshuihe–Xiaojiang fault system must play a crucial role in active deformation around the Mabian area out of the Tibetan plateau deformation domain. This in turn means that in the Xianshuihe–Xiaojiang fault system, the Anninghe–Zemuhe fault is still the main boundary between the southeastern Tibetan plateau and the South China Block.