Can extant comorbidity indices identify patients who experience poor outcomes following total joint arthroplasty?

INTRODUCTION It is uncertain if generic comorbidity indices commonly used in orthopedics accurately predict outcomes after total hip (THA) or knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purpose of this study was to determine the predictive ability of such comorbidity indices for: (1) 30-day mortality; (2) 30-day rate of major and minor complications; (3) discharge disposition; and (4) extended length of stay (LOS). METHODS The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database was retrospectively reviewed for all patients who underwent elective THA (n = 202,488) or TKA (n = 230,823) from 2011 to 2019. The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification system score, modified Charlson Comorbidity Index (mCCI), Elixhauser Comorbidity Measure (ECM), and 5-Factor Modified Frailty Index (mFI-5) were calculated for each patient. Logistic regression models predicting 30-day mortality, discharge disposition, LOS greater than 1 day, and 30-day major and minor complications were fit for each index. RESULTS The ASA classification (C-statistic = 0.773 for THA and TKA) and mCCI (THA: c-statistic = 0.781; TKA: C-statistic = 0.771) were good models for predicting 30-day mortality. However, ASA and mCCI were not predictive of major and minor complications, discharge disposition, or LOS. The ECM and mFI-5 did not reliably predict any outcomes of interest. CONCLUSION ASA and mCCI are good models for predicting 30-day mortality after THA and TKA. However, similar to ECM and mFI-5, these generic comorbidity risk-assessment tools do not adequately predict 30-day postoperative outcomes or in-hospital metrics. This highlights the need for an updated, data-driven approach for standardized comorbidity reporting and risk assessment in arthroplasty.