Forecasting the impact of the containment measures for COVID-19 in France, Italy, and Spain

Background: The Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is now a major challenge for healthcare systems in many countries, including some of the G20 countries like China, Italy and France. The purpose of this paper was to estimate how this disease could impact Italy, Spain and France, in comparison to China, based on the timing of their first response to the epidemic.Methods: The study visually estimated when will the suppression strategies implemented in Italy, Spain and France would change the direction of the daily new infections curve. The study utilizes the publicly available data from the WHO website. The curve representing the response strategy from China was used as a visual reference in this case, assuming that the virus is impacting all populations in the same way, transmitted in similar rate, and the time needed from the implementation of the suppression strategies to the appearance of its impact would be identical in all countries. Then, the total number of cases and deaths will be estimated from the produced curve, based on the current death rate among all infected people in each countryResult: The response in the three countries was not as fast as it was in China. Based on the cumulative number of cases at the response time, France was the fastest responder to the epidemic; therefore, we expect it will be the least impacted among three countries with about 97,523 cases and 4,876 deaths. Followed by Spain with approximately 153,013 cases and 14,536 deaths, then Italy with 162,885 cases and 20,034 deaths. The peak date for the new confirmed cases was expected to be around April 2nd for Italy and Spain, and April 6th for France. Then, the new daily cases should be declining to around Zero by the end of April or the beginning of May.Conclusion: Italy, followed by Spain, will be the most impacted countries in the European Union. Therefore, the support for Italy and Spain at this time is very needed, especially with medically trained personnel.