A Model Analysis Approach for Reassessment of the Public Shelter Plan Focusing both on Accessibility and Accommodation Capacity for Residents - Case Study of Nagata Ward in Kobe City, Japan

In this paper, we address the needs for reassessing and improving the implementability of the public shelter plan that has been completed exclusively by some local administrative bodies. Using a case study in Nagata Ward of Kobe City, Japan, we propose a simulation and GIS-based model approach to reassess implementability by focusing on residents’ accessibility to nearby shelters and their accommodation capacity. The results show that there are significant differences in evacuation time among Cho-Chome community areas within Nagata Ward. It was also found that communities vary in accommodation capacity risk. Policy implications have been derived to identify suspect areas for further investigation and possible improvement, by way of promoting local residents agreement on their temporary shelters, and adding new designated shelters in appropriate locations. The paper concludes with a list of further research needed in order to integrate the proposed approach for implementation of the public shelter plan.