Evaluating fractionated space systems - Status

DARPA has funded a number of teams to further refine its Fractionated Spacecraft vision. Several teams, including this team led by JPL, have been tasked to develop a tool for the evaluation of the Business case for a fractionated system architecture. This evaluation is to understand under what conditions and constraints the fractionated architecture make more sense (in a cost/benefit sense) than the traditional monolithic paradigm. Our approach to this evaluation is to generate and evaluate a variety of trade space options. These options include various sets of stimuli, various degrees of fractionation and various subsystem element properties. The stimuli include many not normally modeled such as technology obsolescence, funding profile changes and changes in mission objectives during the mission itself. The degrees of fractionation enable various traditional subsystem elements to be distributed across different free flyers which then act in concert as needed. This will enable key technologies to be updated as need dictates and availability allows. We have described our approach in a previous IEEE Aerospace conference paper but will briefly summarize here. Our approach to generate the Business Case evaluation is to explicitly model both the implementation and operation phases for the life cycle of a fractionated constellation. A variety of models are integrated into the Phoenix ModelCenter framework and are used to generate various intermediate data which is aggregated into the Present Strategic Value (PSV). The PSV is essentially the value (including the value of the embedded real options) minus the cost. These PSVs are calculated for a variety of configurations and scenarios including variations of various stimuli or uncertainties (e.g. supply chain delays, launch vehicle failures and orbital debris events). There are various decision options (e.g. delay, accelerate, cancel) which can now be exercised for each stimulus. We can compute the PSV for the various combinations and populate a tradespace. We have developed tooling to allow models to be automatically created and executed allowing us to explore large numbers of options with no human intervention. The methodology, models and the process by which they are integrated were a key subset of the previous paper. We will present the results of the Business Case analyses for a variety of configurations and scenarios, present the populated tradespace, show the GUI we have developed to facilitate the use of the tool and discuss the implications of both the results and our work to date. We will also discuss future work and possible approaches for that work.