Test of a Benthic Macroinvertebrate Habitat-Flow Time Series Model Incorporating Disturbance and Recovery Processes

We tested a model [Benthic Invertebrate Time series Habitat Simulation (BITHABSIM)] for simulating the effect of changes in flow on benthic macroinvertebrate habitat and relative abundance. The model calculates a habitat index (WUA2) based on weighted usable area (WUA) modified to account for reduction of invertebrate abundance by flood disturbance and drying followed by recolonization. The test involved a comparison of WUA and WUA2 with a 1-year abundance time series of the common New Zealand mayfly Deleatidium spp. in a small gravel-bed river with naturally variable flows. The fit of WUA and WUA2 to the Deleatidium spp. abundance time series was judged on correlation and regression analysis of the magnitudes and slopes of the mean-standardized indices and abundance versus time. WUA fit the low flow part of the abundance time series fairly well, but not the portion after flood disturbance. Over the entire time series, WUA fit Deleatidium spp. abundance and rate of change poorly. WUA2 fit Deleatidium abundance better, but the correlation was not quite statistically significant at the 95% level. However, it did explain the essential temporal pattern. The fit of the slopes of standardized WUA2 to the slopes of standardized Deleatidium spp. abundance was significant (R2 = 0.66), but with a systematic bias; high slopes were underestimated and low slopes overestimated. BITHABSIM adds biological realism to traditional hydraulic-habitat modelling based on WUA and so improves the reliability of assessments of effects of flow change on benthic macroinvertebrates over the entire hydrograph. Parameter uncertainty and research needs to improve BITHABSIM and future process-based models are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.