Human activity and climate change as determinants of spatial prioritization for the conservation of globally threatened birds in the southern Neotropic (Santa Fe, Argentina)

Conservation area networks (CAN) must overlap spatial patterns of conservation priorities in order to ensure their persistence. Threatened species are among the least controversial biodiversity features taken into account to guide conservation policies. Due to growing human pressure and climate change worldwide, chances of planning an effective CAN may be reduced. Santa Fe province is located in the center-east of Argentina and encompasses four bioregions highly threatened of the subtropical temperate South America. Intensive agriculture, livestock and hunting have led to the loss and degradation of its natural habitats and the current CAN fails on the coverage of bioregions. Our aim was to find out areas that enhance the persistence of threatened bird species in the Santa Fe province. We defined spatial conservation priorities that overlap environmentally suitable areas of species over time and overcome the likely impacts of human activity. Conservation priorities (top 20%) belonged mainly to Dry Chaco and Atlantic bioregions and will remain the same in the province. The current CAN mismatches spatial patterns of environmental suitability of threatened species. Sporophila hypochroma, Asthenes hudsoni and Spartonoica maluroides may lose more than half of their current environmentally suitable area in the future. Human activity will lead to a CAN which will require a great number of patches and a large perimeter. Searching for the most environmentally suitable areas of species over time while minimizing conflicts with human activities is a useful conservation strategy regardless the biogeographical context considered.