Estimation of required PM10 emission source reduction on the basis of a 10-year period data

The main purpose of this study was to assess the exceedance frequency of the EU (50 μg m−3) and US EPA (150 μg m−3) daily PM10 limit values, as well as the emission source reduction required to comply with air quality standards. The analysis was based on a 10-year (2003–2013) data set obtained for the Belgrade (Serbia) urban area, which is seriously affected by pollution. General probability (Pearson 5, lognormal and Weibull) and extreme value (two-parameter exponential and Gumbel’s) distributions were used to fit data and to estimate the number of exceedances. With the use of best fitting general probability distribution and rollback equation, the required reduction was determined to be in the range of 12 to 98 % for some years, although for others the total reduction of moderate sources would be insufficient to meet air quality regulations. The required emission reduction of strong sources for the whole monitoring period was estimated by means of extreme value distributions at about 45 %. The aforementioned methods can be successfully applied for prediction of pollutant loads, as well as for estimation of required reductions. As pollution in Belgrade is largely seen as the result of outdated technology, emission reduction measures must primarily rely on technological improvements and advances.