Predicting Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) curves for ecosystem modeling applications

Vegetation indices derived from remote sensing data provide information about the variability in stature, growth and vigor of the vegetation across a region, and have been used to model plant processes. For example, the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) provides a measure of greenness of the vegetation that can be used to predict net primary production. However, ecosystem models relying on remote sensing data for EVI or other vegetation indices are limited by the time series of the satellite data record. Our objective was to develop a statistical model to predict EVI in order to extend the time series for modeling applications. To explain the functional behavior of the seasonal EVI curves, a two-stage multiple regression fitting procedure within a semi-parametric mixed effect (SPME) model framework was used. First, a linear mixed effect (LME) model was fitted to the EVI with climate indexes, crop and irrigation information as predictor variables. Second, Penalized B-splines were used to explain the behavior of the smooth residuals, which result from a smooth model fit to the smooth EVI data curve, in order to describe the uncertainty of the EVI curve. Individual models were fit within individual Major Land Resources Areas (MLRAs). Predicted seasonal EVI, derived from our regression equations, showed a strong agreement with the observed EVI and was able to capture the site by site and year by year variation in the EVI curve. Out-of-sample prediction produced excellent results for a majority of the sites, except for sites without clear seasonal patterns, which may have resulted from cloud contamination and/or snow cover. Therefore, given the appropriate climate, crop, and irrigation information, the proposed approach can be used to predict seasonal EVI curves for extending the time series into the past and future.