Association of Serum Neurofilament Light Chain Levels at Disease Onset With Disability Worsening in Patients With a First Demyelinating Multiple Sclerosis Event Not Treated With High-Efficacy Drugs

ImportanceThe value of serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) levels for predicting long-term disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) remains controversial.ObjectiveTo assess whether high sNfL values are associated with disability worsening in patients who underwent their first demyelinating MS event.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent their first demyelinating event suggestive of MS at Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal (development cohort; June 1, 1994, to September 31, 2021, with follow-up until August 31, 2022) and 8 Spanish hospitals (validation cohort; October 1, 1995, to August 4, 2020, with follow-up until August 16, 2022).ExposuresClinical evaluations at least every 6 months.Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe main outcomes were 6-month confirmed disability worsening (CDW) and an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 3. Levels of sNfL were measured in blood samples obtained within 12 months after disease onset using a single molecule array kit. The cutoffs used were sNfL level of 10 pg/mL and a standardized score (z score) of 1.5. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate outcomes.ResultsOf the 578 patients included in the study, 327 were in the development cohort (median age at sNfL analysis, 34.1 years [IQR, 27.2-42.7 years]; 226 female [69.1%]) and 251 patients were in the validation cohort (median age at sNfL analysis, 33.3 years [IQR, 27.4-41.5 years]; 184 female [73.3%]). The median follow-up was 7.10 years (IQR, 4.18-10.0 years). Levels of sNfL greater than 10 pg/mL were independently associated with higher risk of 6-month CDW and an EDSS of 3 in the development cohort (6-month CDW: hazard ratio [HR], 2.39; 95% CI, 1.39-4.12; P = .002; EDSS of 3: HR, 4.12; 95% CI, 2.18-7.77; P P = .02; EDSS of 3: HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.23-3.33; P = .005). Highly effective disease-modifying treatments were associated with lower risks of 6-month CDW and an EDSS of 3 in patients with high baseline sNfL values.Conclusions and RelevanceThis cohort study found that high sNfL values obtained within the first year of disease were associated with long-term disability worsening in MS, suggesting that sNfL level measurement may help identify optimal candidates for highly effective disease-modifying treatments.