MODELLING OF INTRADAY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PRODUCTION

Photovoltaic (PV) productions should occur within a time interval of sunlight. Time mismatches are detected between sunrise and first production hour as well as sunset and last production hour in a transmission system operator, Amprion, Germany. Hence, in this paper, we investigate this effect using an additive function of two seasonalities and a stochastic process. Both seasonalities are based on the mimicked locations, corrected by a weighing scale, depending on the first and last production hours' coordinates. The result shows that the proposed deterministic model could capture the effect of sunrise and sunset. Also, the dynamics of random components are sufficiently explained by an autoregressive process of order two. Finally, the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution is shown as the best distribution in explaining noise behaviour, particularly heavy tails in the production's residuals, compared to the Gaussian distribution.