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Accounting for forecast uncertainty in the optimized operation of energy storage
- Source :
- 2016 IEEE Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Asia (ISGT-Asia).
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- IEEE, 2016.
-
Abstract
- This paper presents and empirically evaluates two approaches to accounting for forecast uncertainty when attempting to optimize the operation of a residential battery energy storage system. Data-driven methods are used for forecasting, and dynamic programming, within a receding horizon controller, is used for operational optimization. The first method applies a discount factor to costs incurred at later intervals in a deterministic dynamic programming control horizon, provided with point forecasts. In the second approach probabilistic (scenario) forecasts are generated using Lloyd-Max quantization of the distribution of forecast errors, to allow the use of a stochastic dynamic programming formulation. These methods are applied to maximizing the cost-savings delivered from a residentially owned and operated battery, using a case-study of residential consumers with roof-top PV systems in New South Wales, Australia. It is found that scenario forecasts can offer an 8% increase in annual cost-savings, on average, when using a univariate multiple linear regression forecast.
- Subjects :
- Engineering
Mathematical optimization
business.industry
020209 energy
Photovoltaic system
Univariate
Probabilistic logic
020206 networking & telecommunications
Accounting
02 engineering and technology
Energy storage
Stochastic programming
Dynamic programming
Control theory
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
business
Consensus forecast
Subjects
Details
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- 2016 IEEE Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Asia (ISGT-Asia)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........6532225a73c259e8a8ae1f7830c94761