An integrated modeling system for environmental impact analysis of climate variability and extreme weather events in the San Joaquin Basin, California

This collaborative research project has two main objectives: to assess the vulnerability of water supply, water demand, water quality, ecosystem health and socioeconomic welfare within the San Joaquin River Basin as a function of climate variability and extreme weather events; and to provide guidance in the formulation of effective management strategies to mitigate the range of potential impacts due to climate variability and extreme weather. The project involves updating and advancing previous studies on climate change in California. Climate data are based on new Global Circulation Model output from the statistical downscaling that converts GCM climate forecasts into local weather forecasts. The project applies these climate data to perturb an existing 72-year historical hydrologic time series of the San Joaquin Basin to develop an integrated impacts analysis of climate change/variability on the water, economic and social resources of the Basin. Previous studies focused only on water resource impacts. A decision support system (DSS) is under development that will provide assistance to CALFED (a joint California State and Federal program designed to resolve water issues in the Bay–Delta) in water resource and ecosystem management of the San Joaquin Basin.